According to the survey released Saturday, 51 percent of likely Iowa voters would support Trump, which is 11 percent higher than Joe Biden’s 40 percent. Four percent of voters would not vote for either Trump or Biden, and five percent were undecided.
Selzer & Co. took the poll of 810 Iowa adults from November 7-10, 2021. The survey has a +-3.4 percentage point margin of error.
Trump’s poll numbers indicate an increase in support from his eight point victory in Iowa over Biden in the 2020 election. Trump carried Iowa with 53 percent compared to Biden’s 45 percent.
According to the Des Moines Register, “Trump’s 2024 lead among likely Iowa voters appears to be driven by support among independents.”
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Iowa Independents support Trump by an eight percent margin, with Trump getting 45 percent support compared to Biden’s 37 percent.
The poll also revealed that 61 percent of self-identified Iowa Republicans feel more allegiance to the Republican Party over Trump.
However, Selzer & Co. president Ann Selzer warned that there could be support for Republican challengers in the Iowa caucus. “If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up,” she said. “It opens the door a bit for Iowa.”
Franklin Troy Hommer, an independent poll respondent, told the Des Moines Register, “If I had a choice between Gov. (Ron) DeSantis or Donald Trump, that right there would be a hard decision for me. But if you’re telling me that my two choices are Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I’m picking Donald Trump.”
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