CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten said Monday on “The Lead” that Republicans will win a massive majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November midterm elections.
Anchor Jake Tapper said, “If you’re a Republican running for re-election or trying to unseat a Democrat, things are looking pretty good, right?”
Enten said, “I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context. Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938 — that generic ballot basically is, ‘Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?’ And guess what, since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years. It beats 2010 when Republicans were up a point. It beats 2014, 2002, 1998, where Democrats led by a point, and in all of those four prior examples that make this list of the top five, look at that, who won a majority? It was the Republicans who won a majority.”
He added, “Now, of course, the election is not being held tomorrow, and we’ll see. Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup, if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow, would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199. That’s based off a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.”
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Tapper said, “That is a stomping, or that would be a stomping.”
Enten said, “Yes, it would.”
Follow Pam Key on Twitter @pamkeyNEN