The progressive pollsters from the New York-based firm of Schoen Cooperman Research described their swing voter findings in TheHill.com:
Republicans are necessarily making positive gains with this group. Rather, these voters feel that Democrats are unable to address the main challenges America faces …
[The] independents are highly receptive to Republican attacks on Democrats for rising prices, the surge in migrants at the southern border, and increasing crime rates — criticisms that Democrats have largely neglected to counter in their advertising and communications.
Among independents, the GOP has a mere two-point advantage on illegal migration — but a seven-point advantage on legal immigration.
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The poll asked, “Please indicate if you trust Democrats or Republicans more to handle the following issues”:
Addressing illegal immigration:
I trust Democrats more 44%I trust Republicans more 46%Not sure 10%
Addressing legal immigration
I trust Democrats more 40%I trust Republicans more 47%Not sure
The Republicans’ seven-point advantage on immigration was almost identical to their advantage on crime and economics:
Lowering the crime rate
I trust Democrats more 40%I trust Republicans more 47%Not sure 13%
Managing the economy
I trust Democrats more 41%I trust Republicans more 48%Not sure 11%
The swing voters’ tilt to the GOP, said the pollsters, means that:
Republicans have a clear lead in terms of who these voters trust most to handle the top issues facing the country: The GOP has a 25-point advantage on controlling inflation, a 20-point edge on lowering the crime rate and a 14-point lead on handling illegal immigration as well as on managing the economy.
Forty-five percent “fully” blamed Biden for the border crisis. Only 27 percent said he was “Not at all” responsible.
Biden’s border crisis seems to be polarizing American politics over migration. For example, 47 percent of independents rejected an amnesty for illegal aliens, and instead said they should be “required to leave the country.”
The survey did not ask any questions about the pocketbook impact of migration on wages and housing
The poll showed there was no significant difference on taxation issues, despite the GOP’s traditional role as tax-cutter:
Taxing Americans fairly
I trust Democrats more 41%I trust Republicans more 41%
Republicans had a big 18-point advantage on inflation — while Democrats had an equal advantage on abortion issues.
The poll summarized the Republican and Democratic messages for the 2022 election — and showed the GOP’s message won an eight-point swing toward the GOP:
The Democratic message was described as:
Despite many challenges, President Biden and Democrats have delivered for Americans. They helped pull the country out of the worst days of the pandemic by providing relief when it was needed most and quickly distributing vaccines. Democrats recently passed historic legislation that will lower costs for families, combat the climate crisis, reduce the deficit, and finally ask the largest corporations to pay their fair share. Republicans have become too extreme, and we need to elect Democrats who will standup for our democracy and freedoms, reject dangerous election lies, oppose attempts to ban abortion, and make our communities safer from gun violence.
The GOP message was described as:
Republicans believe we need a change. Under Democratic leadership, government spending is out of control, record-high gas and grocery prices are hurting middle-class Americans, there has been a surge in violent crime, and millions of migrants are coming across the border illegally. We need to elect Republicans who prioritize keeping our communities safe, cutting taxes, lowering the cost of living, and eliminating wasteful government spending and burdensome regulations.
“Democrats hold a 5-point lead initially, but Republicans come away with a 3-point advantage after messaging,” the article said.
The swing is only eight points because the GOP reduces its appeal on immigration issues by hiding the pocketbook pain of migration.
Many polls show the public wants to welcome some immigrants. But the polls also show deep and broad public opposition to labor migration and the inflow of temporary contract workers into jobs needed by young U.S. graduates.
This “Third Rail” opposition is growing, anti-establishment, multiracial, cross-sex, non-racist, class-based, bipartisan, rational, persistent, and recognizes the solidarity that American citizens owe to one another.
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