The GOP is leading because Democrat strategists spent much of the election season touting the issues favored by the very liberal bloc of college-credentialled white women, according to the November 4 article, which quoted a GOP strategist saying:
“The reason that Democrats have fucked this up is that they won’t stop talking about abortion. And the reason that they screwed it up with Blacks is they won’t stop talking about abortion. . . . It’s like they’re a two-issue party. It’s this and Trump. They can’t stop. I don’t think they have anything else./
Back in the summer, I’d spoken with the Republican strategist, who then predicted that the Dobbs wave would be ephemeral. “The Republican base is asking for very, very little,” he told me this week. “For all the stories we have about, like, the election deniers, from March of last year until now, their demands have basically been, like, ‘Please do something about the economy, please do something about immigration, please don’t let dudes participate in girls sports, and please do something about crime.’ “
When it came to independents, he went on, “It’s, like, ‘Please do something about inflation, please do something about crime, we’re pretty much with you on the girls-sports thing, just don’t be a dick about it.’ “
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The article cites October research by famed researcher Stanley Greenberg:
Democrats are being hurt by the persistence of the economy and crime issue and late hits by the Republicans on the border and immigration- and that is driving the current slippage …
Fear of Democratic governance generates much greater fear than what happens with Republican control. Voters see growing crime, homelessness, attacks on police, and an open Southern border.
It is going to get worse, unless Democrats focus on the cost of living and make it their closing message. Our cost of living message (and recognizing no pay raise) is the only message that marginally grows the vote against this onslaught. The message currently being used by the White House and many national Democrats loses the vote further.
“When I asked the Republican consultant what the voters coming home to the G.O.P. in October wanted, he said, ‘Stop Biden. That’s it,” the article said.